Monday

Investor Survey: Optimism Rising As CRE Recovery Slowly Gains Traction

CoStar - Cap Rates Expected to Hold Steady Or Decline in Most U.S. Markets Over Next Six Months According to PwC Survey Respondents.  Investors are growing more confident that the commercial real estate industry is moving past the bottom of the cycle as the economy adds jobs and property fundamentals slowly improve, according to the results of the first-quarter 2011 PwC Real Estate Investor Survey.  Tracking the expectations of survey respondents for the future performance of the office, retail, industrial and multifamily property sectors from 2011 to 2014, PricewaterhouseCoopers found that investors have a sense that, although real estate is recovering, the pace of the recovery in the U.S. economy has been slow and uneven at best. 

As investors become more confident about the long-awaited recovery in occupancy, sales and leasing, however, they're eager to get deals done, noted Mitch Roschelle, partner and PwC U.S. real estate advisory practice leader.  "This bodes well for the industry as the volume of capital chasing deals is expected to increase in all sectors as investors work to deploy capital before interest rates rise, overall cap rates increase and the industry shifts more in favor of sellers," Roschelle said.  PwC analyzed historical and forecasting data to measure how the inventory of each sector changes over time in relation to the four stages of the real estate cycle, contraction, expansion, recession and recovery. The report surveyed 31 markets, including 10 national markets; and individual product types including regional mall, power center, strip shopping center, CBD office, suburban office, flex/R&D, warehouse, apartment, net lease, and medical office buildings. The report also includes a review of 18 major U.S. office markets and three regional apartment markets, Mid-Atlantic, Pacific, and Southeast.

The report finds that average overall cap rates decreased in 27 of the 31 surveyed markets as signs of recovery emerged for both the economy and the real estate industry. Investors reported the largest quarterly decreases in the regional apartment markets, where average cap rates compressed between 39 and 73 basis points in the first quarter.  Cap rate compression continues in sales involving well-located and better-positioned assets with stable rent rolls and limited leasing risk, and an increasing number of investors are expanding their property searches to include secondary markets and impaired assets, the survey found.  Due to strong buyer interest combined with increased debt market liquidity, investors expect that overall cap rates will either hold steady or decline in 25 of the survey's 31 markets over the next six months.

The results of the PricewaterhouseCoopers survey corroborate recent analysis by CoStar Group, which publishes a monthly index tracking repeat sales of investment-grade commercial properties. The index jumped 10.6% in January over the same period last year, the largest year-over-year gain since the height of the real estate boom in 2006. The increase in the index for higher-quality properties hit a five-year high in January despite dipping slightly from December, a reflection of how strongly the index has recovered within 12 months.  First-quarter CoStar outlooks for the office, multifamily, industrial and retail sectors also showed improving fundamentals in investment sales and leasing activity.  Below are PwC survey findings relative to the major property types:

Office - Most of the nation's office inventory will be in recovery by year-end 2011 due to a lack of new supply and signs of falling vacancy for the U.S. office market. Recovery is in sight, with more than 86% of the U.S. office sector passing over the market bottom by year-end 2012. That said, office markets such as Chicago, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Tampa are expected to remain in recession through 2012. 

Retail - Spotty consumer spending and inflation fears will keep the majority of retail inventory, 76.6%, in recession through 2012. A recovery by year-end 2013 will include 77% of retail inventory. Individual retail markets expected to perform better than the overall sector include Long Island, Nashville, and Fairfield County, which are each expected to be in recovery during 2012.

Industrial - Availability rates for the U.S. industrial property are expected to peak in 2011 as tenant demand strengthens in a growing economy. Most industrial stock will be in recovery in 2011 and 2012, nearly 72 and 86.2%, respectively. Rising imports and exports will send a larger portion of industrial inventory into expansion phase in 2013 and 2014 (20.9% and 40.6%) Individual markets that are expected to underperform the sector include Tampa, FL; Akron, OH, Cleveland, and Minneapolis.

Apartments - U.S. multifamily leads the other three sectors handily in terms of recovery. As tighter loan restrictions continue to dampen single-family home-buying, pent-up housing demand will grow the proportion of multifamily stock in the expansion phase through 2014, when it hits 30.2%. Two multifamily markets, New Orleans and Syracuse, NY, aren't expected to enter expansion over the near term.

Proposal cuts back corridor powers, Skyway among projects that could be affected

Star News - Proposed legislation in the state Senate would limit the time the government can prevent development on private land in the path of a planned road.  Senate Bill 214 would require governments protecting properties from development to purchase them or begin condemnation proceedings within 18 months from the time a corridor protection map is filed. If the government that filed the map doesn't do so, the property owner would be free to develop the land, according to the bill.  Under current law, no building permits or subdivision approvals may be issued inside a protected corridor for up to three years, or 36 months, from the date an application was submitted by a developer.

The statewide bill – sponsored by Sens. Thom Goolsby of New Hanover County, Bill Rabon of Brunswick
County and Clark Jenkins of Edgecombe County – ultimately could impact countless property owners in the paths of future roads across the state, including local highways such as the Cape Fear Skyway and the Hampstead Bypass.  Under state law, local governments, the state Board of Transportation and the N.C. Turnpike Authority can adopt corridor protection maps to keep property owners from developing land in a planned road's footprint. The idea in part is to protect taxpayers by keeping down the value of properties that the N.C. Department of Transportation will have to purchase for new roads.

The Senate bill also would change the "trigger" starting the time period from the application submittal date to the filing date of the corridor map.  Critics of the existing law say it infringes on personal property rights by preventing owners from doing anything with their land for three years.  The Business Alliance for a Sound Economy, which deals with legislative affairs for the coastal North Carolina real estate and building industries, and the N.C. Home Builders Association are pushing the legislation. It would take effect Dec. 1 and apply only to corridor maps filed after that date.  Donna Girardot, BASE chief executive officer, said under current law, to get the three-year clock started, a developer must spend the time and money to submit a development application, even though he knows it will be denied.

Girardot cited several Wilmington-area cases where property has been tied up for more than a decade while the DOT finalizes corridor protection maps and moves forward with land acquisition and construction.  "In the meantime, these properties are encumbered, which complicates sales, building and potential development," she said.  Greer Beaty, a DOT spokeswoman, said the department's legal staff hadn't yet reviewed the legislation, so she couldn't comment on it. But, she said, by protecting corridors, the DOT is able to keep the price of new roads down. And preventing development of new homes or businesses inside those corridors also reduces the number of people impacted by new road construction.

Mike Kozlosky, executive director of the Wilmington Metropolitan Planning Organization, which plans transportation projects, said at first glance, it appears the bill could significantly impact transportation planning and increase the costs of developing roads.  It also could necessitate a change in the way the DOT funds road projects because right-of-way acquisition would have to be completed sooner, he said.  Girardot said that the construction of new roads is vitally important to the economy of the Wilmington area but that private property owners' rights also must be considered as the state struggles to find enough money to pay for property acquisition in a timely manner.  "Requiring them to file an expensive request for development, in order to have it denied and then waiting sometimes many years while continuing to pay property taxes on land that they cannot sell, develop or otherwise utilize due to state budget shortfalls is also not right," she said.

U.S. 17 Bypass to be completed two years early

Star News - Gov. Bev Perdue announced Friday afternoon that the final stretch of the U.S. 17 Wilmington Bypass would be completed in 2018, about two years earlier than expectedIn a phone interview, Perdue cited recently released population figures that showed New Hanover and Brunswick counties continuing to grow. She said both counties are “red hot” and the growing number of people exacerbates the need for better roads.  “This is the right thing to do for jobs and the future of Wilmington,” the governor said.  Perdue announced that several urban loop projects in the state scheduled to begin between 2014 and 2019 would begin earlier. She attributed the accelerated schedule mainly to available cash and cost savings from a favorable construction environment.

All grading and structures work on the “B” section of the U.S. 17 bypass – from U.S. 74/76 in Brunswick County to U.S. 421 in New Hanover County – would be consolidated into one contract in 2013, according to a news release from the governor's office.  Paving would be done under a separate contract in 2017, allowing the project to be finished by 2018, roughly two years earlier than previously projected.  “This is great news for mobility in this region,” said Mike Kozlosky, executive director of the Wilmington Metropolitan Planning Organization, a transportation planning agency.  When finished, the bypass will stretch from U.S. 17 in northern New Hanover County to U.S. 17 in Brunswick County.The “A” section of the bypass – from U.S. 17 to U.S. 74/76 in Brunswick County – is expected to be open to traffic in 2013, Kozlosky said. That will leave a hole between U.S. 74/76 in Brunswick and U.S. 421 in New Hanover until that final stretch opens.


The acceleration of bypass construction has been endorsed by municipalities throughout Brunswick and New Hanover counties. The highway has been the top priority for regional transportation planners for more than a decade.  “This project's been in the pipeline for a long time,” Kozlosky said.  Perdue also announced that other urban loop projects would be expedited, including the widening of Interstate 485 in Charlotte and urban loops around Greensboro.  According to the news release, the money to accelerate the projects was made available in three ways:  By using the design/build method, which allows design and construction to take place simultaneously, and coordinating construction on three separate projects in the Charlotte area, the N.C. Department of Transportation saved about $130 million. 

By saving nearly 20 percent on construction contract bids during the past year.  By putting loop projects on hold last year, allowing cash to build up.  Perdue also said she hoped a special fund she created for transportation projects – known as the Mobility Fund – would help build the Cape Fear Skyway during her second term as governor. Of course, she still must win a second, four-year term in 2012.  The proposed Skyway would connect Brunswick and New Hanover counties with a 9.5-mile toll road and high-rise bridge across the Cape Fear River.  “I want the Cape Fear Skyway to happen while I'm governor,” she said. 

Target to evaluate Brunswick sites in 2014

Star News - Target is expected to set its sights on Brunswick County in 2014, a representative of the company told the county’s economic development officer.  The retailer plans to begin evaluating possible locations that year, said Jim Bradshaw, Brunswick County Economic Development Commission executive director, in an e-mail. Bradshaw went to the International Council of Shopping Centers conference in Charlotte last week, where he met with a number of chain store representatives.  Food Lion is set to begin engineering work on its planned new store in Supply, and is slated to begin construction next year, Bradshaw said. It will be built behind the Hardee’s at the intersection of U.S. 17 and N.C. 211.  McDonald’s has also decided to build a new restaurant at that intersection after ruling out the new Brunswick Novant Medical Center site. Construction should begin this year, Bradshaw said.  Harris Teeter has dropped plans for a store at N.C. 211 and Midway Road, Bradshaw said, skeptical that there are enough people living in the area and cautious of competing with the proposed Lowes Foods, which could begin construction late this year.  Chick-fil-a and T.J. Maxx also expressed an interest in coming to Brunswick County, and Bradshaw said he will be following up. 

Horry County growth rises 37 percent in 2010 Census

Sun News - The surge was led by bedroom communities such as Carolina Forest, which quintupled in population, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Wednesday. The county's growth rate is slightly higher than it was between 1990 and 2000, when Horry County swelled by 36.5 percent.  Georgetown County grew at a much slower rate in the past decade, only seeing a single-digit increase in population. A few oceanfront and rural census tracts along the Grand Strand lost population.  Horry County's population rose from 196,629 in 2000 to 269,291 in 2010, and only trailed Dorchester and York counties for highest growth rate. Overall, South Carolina's population grew 15.3 percent.  The county is now the fifth most populous in the state, surpassing Lexington County. Greenville County is the most populous county in the state with 451,225 residents.

Coastal, urban and suburban counties in the state generally grew, but several rural counties lost population.  Georgetown County grew at a slower rate than Horry, increasing 7.8 percent to 60,158 people from 55,797 in 2000.  Bedroom communities - areas that are mostly residential - grew the fastest, with the census tract containing Carolina Forest experiencing population growth of 506 percent.  That explains the population boom in Carolina Forest from 3,338 residents to more than 20,000 in the past 10 years.  The Forestbrook neighborhood more than doubled its population with 125 percent growth and the Burgess area grew 87 percent. That trend also emerged in Georgetown County, where the Waccamaw Neck area - including Murrells Inlet and Pawleys Island - grew the fastest.

Some coastal areas lost population, led by the census tract containing the area between U.S. 17 Business and the beach in Garden City, which saw a 15.5 percent dip. The population of an oceanfront census tract from 17th Avenue North in Surfside Beach to Fourth Avenue South in Myrtle Beach shrank 10.6 percent.  Rural areas in Georgetown County mostly lost population, as did the census tract containing the city of Georgetown's downtown area, which lost roughly 400 residents.  The city of Myrtle Beach grew 19.1 percent to 27,109 and is the 14th most populous incorporated place in the state.

Horry County Schools have already built River Oaks Elementary School to cope with Carolina Forest's growth, said Joe Burch, who coordinates planning for the district. The school is scheduled to open in August 2012.  No other building is planned yet, but the district will look at the census to determine how to resolve disparities between different areas.  Georgetown County Schools grew by about 100 students this year but lost about 1,000 students during the three previous years, mostly in rural areas, Superintendent Randy Dozier said. Waccamaw Neck was the only area of the county that showed strong growth. A new intermediate school has opened there and the high school is expanding.

Sunday

New eats coming to Broadway at the Beach in Myrtle Beach

Sun News - Renovation was under way last week on four new restaurants coming to Broadway at the Beach this spring, with some closer to opening than others.  Good Time Charley's will be the first to open in a former retail location near Broadway's Celebrity Square and is slated to start serving customers this coming week, owner Pete Lloyd said.  "We've got to hang up some décor, move in some furniture and do final cleaning and we'll be ready to roll," Lloyd said Thursday. Lloyd is also part owner of the Beach House Restaurant, 1205 Ocean Boulevard, and Fire Island Grille at Barefoot Landing.  Nearby, Carlos'n Charlie's, which will take the place of Uno Chicago Grill, is set to open in the first week of April, General Manager Bernardo Chavez said. The restaurant is owned by Senor Frog's and will offer upscale Mexican fare, Chavez said. The restaurant will serve as a bar at night for those 21 years old and older, he said while standing in front of a partially constructed DJ booth.

On the other side of the complex, construction workers walked in and out of the gutted building that formerly housed Tripp's as they worked on transforming it into Capriz, an Italian restaurant owned by Charleston-based TBonz Restaurant Group.  Construction on Tilted Kilt, a Celtic-themed bar with waitresses dressed as scantily clad school girls, is expected to begin later this month in the former Tony Roma's space. The bar and restaurant is expected to open in July, said Ed Messina, franchise development director.  Burroughs & Chapin Co. Inc., which owns Broadway at the Beach, chose not to renew the leases with several restaurant tenants and a B&C rep has said it is part of an effort to shake up the restaurant lineup, which hadn't changed since 2005. 

More affordable housing under way in Myrtle Beach

Sun News - A new, 56-unit apartment complex under construction in Myrtle Beach is expected to help fill the perpetual need for affordable housing in the area.  The second phase of Bay Pointe, which is on Mr. Joe White Avenue near Robert Grissom Parkway, is expected to be completed in August, about a year after the first phase opened next door, according to Progress Builders, which is building the development.  The first phase filled quickly, prompting Progress Builders and Bradley Development to put together plans for the second phase, which will have two- and three-bedroom apartments, and will more than double Bay Pointe's size.  "There's a lot of interest left over from the original community there," said Michael Allard, the chief construction officer at Progress Builders. "The demand for affordable housing is never fully served by supply."

There is a long waiting list for people who want Section 8 housing vouchers, and places like Bay Pointe, which don't require but do accept the vouchers, help people who need affordable housing, said Sharron Forrest, the executive director of the Myrtle Beach Housing Authority.  A local a real estate analyst with the Coastal Carolinas Association of Realtors, said that there is consistently a need for workforce affordable housing.  "There is a pent-up demand," he said. "I think we have a need and it's great to see people filling it."  The first phase was full within three months and phase two is expected to fill up just as quickly, said Brad Queener, president of Bradley Development Co. and the developer of the project.

The two-bedroom apartments will range in price from $520 to $630 and the three-bedroom apartments will range in price from $595 to $685, depending on the renter's income.  "The demand for this type of housing has certainly gone up and because of the tax credits and the equity infusion we can build deals now, and market rate deals now are much tougher to be built," Queener said.  There will be requirements as to who can rent apartments in the building because the project is funded through the state's Low Income Housing Tax Credit, Allard said.  The credit is an indirect federal subsidy that is used to finance the development of affordable rental housing for low-income households, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's website. In exchange for their financial backing, the investors will receive a tax credit.

Thursday

Old Kroger store in Surfside Beach area torn down, rehab begins

Sun News - The stagnant corner at S.C. 544 and U.S. 17 Business near Surfside Beach is set to be rehabilitated, starting with the demolition of an old Kroger grocery store that began last week, the developer said.  Construction on a new 10,000 square-foot facility - to house Spencerz Sports Pub and other businesses - will begin around April 1 on the site of the former grocery, said Dennis Wade, president and CEO of the Jackson Companies, which is developing the property as part of a joint venture.  Another lot near the corner will be developed in preparation for a major retailer to locate there in 2012, Wade said. The company will also improve street access to the businesses on the corner and has already obtained permits from Horry County and the state Department of Transportation to do so, he said.

"We think with some sprucing up and some new things there it will be more vibrant, and hopefully create traffic and activity," Wade said.  Spencerz Sports Pub will relocate from its location on an adjacent lot to one of four available spaces in the new building by August in time for college football season, and its current location will be torn down, owner Bill Spencer said.  "Now I'm sitting on a little island by myself. I mean unless you're going to Spencerz you might drive by it without even knowing its there," he said.  The new building should bring in business and make it easier to turn off the highway into the bar, he said.  Spencer said the bar's current location should stay open up until the new location opens.  The Jackson Companies operate the Ocean Lakes Campground and other interests along S.C. 544.  The companies' founder, Mary Emily Jackson, established a trust for her children which owns the property on the corner with U.S. 17.  Jackson died in December.

"It's a prime corner and a prime intersection and honestly the family was just not happy aesthetically," Wade said. Ocean Lakes Family Campground is across U.S. 17 from property that is being developed.  The Kroger building was at least 30 years old, Wade said. The Jackson family trust acquired the property in 2009 after the grocery store had closed.  "You can't attract a good tenant to a building that old and expect them to pay market rents," he said.  The remaining three spaces in the building to be occupied by Spencerz have yet to be rented out, Wade said.  The buildings that house former Baskin Robbins, which closed in January, and a Burger King will also be demolished, Wade said.  Three vacant lots on the property will remain open for future development, he said.  "Once things start and get underway, once the buildings are gone and everything is built and raised, that will generate some interest from some people," Wade said.